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"Afrikanische Löwen, Afrikanische Tiger und aufstrebende Afrikanische Mittelklassen": Ein neuer Forschungsbericht

Professor Karl Wohlmuth von der Forschungsgruppe Afrikanische Entwicklungsperspektiven der Universität Bremen hat einen neuen Forschungsbericht zur "Africa Rising Story" vorgelegt, die in der derzeitigen Diskussion über Afrikas Wachstumsperspektiven eine große Rolle spielt (vgl. den Neuen Forschungsbericht). Der Autor ist an Kommentaren interessiert, die bei neuen Entwürfen auch berücksichtigt werden, denn der Forschungsbericht wird in mehreren Versionen erscheinen.

Afrika wird in den letzten Jahren immer wieder als boomender Kontinent mit riesigen Wachstums- und Investitionschancen portraitiert, und als ein Kontinent mit einigen sehr schnell wachsenden Ländern ("Afrikanische Löwen" und "Afrikanische Tiger"). Mythen spielen bei der Interpretation von Wachstum und Entwicklung in Afrika eine große Rolle und diese überlagern zunehmend Fakten und Realitäten. Wo nahm die "Africa Rising Story" mit "Afrikanischen Löwen" und "Afrikanischen Tigern" ihren Ausgangspunkt? Welche Hintergründe gibt es dafür? Eine besondere Rolle bei der Mythenbildung spielen dabei die internationalen Consultingunternehmen mit ihren Afrikaberichten, also Namen wie McKinsey, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Roland Berger, Bain & Company, The Boston Consulting Group, Ernst & Young, ATKearney, KPMG, Deloitte, und viele andere mehr. Diese Unternehmen haben starken Einfluss auf die ausländischen Investoren, auf die Multinationalen Unternehmen, die in Afrika Geschäfte machen, aber auch auf die Regierungen, die lokale Privatwirtschaft in Afrika und schließlich auch auf die multilaterale und bilaterale Entwicklungszusammenarbeit.

Einige dieser Mythen werden in der Studie diskutiert und mit Fakten und Realitäten konfrontiert (Afrika sei ein Kontinent von besonders schnell wachsenden Ländern; Afrika sei ein Kontinent mit boomenden Wirtschaftssektoren und schnell expandierenden Konsumentenklassen; Afrika sei ein Kontinent mit einer wachsenden Zahl von global agierenden und international wettbewerbsfähigen Unternehmen; Afrika sei ein Kontinent, der zunehmend die Vorteile der "demographischen Dividende" und der "digitalen Revolution" ausschöpfen könne; und Afrika sei ein Kontinent mit einer zunehmend entwicklungsförderlich agierenden afrikanischen Mittelklasse). Auch die methodischen Grundlagen der Berichte dieser internationalen Consultingunternehmen werden geprüft. Es wird auf die Hintergründe und die Motivationen bei der Erstellung dieser Berichte, auf die methodischen und analytischen Ansätze, auf die funktionale Bedeutung der Berichte für Investoren und Regierungen, und auf die Art der Verbreitung der Messages in Afrika und im globalen Kontext eingegangen.

Mit dieser Studie soll ein Rahmen für die kritische Auseinandersetzung mit den Afrikaberichten der internationalen Consultingunternehmen präsentiert werden. Dies ist wichtig, weil die Inhalte dieser Afrikaberichte sehr schnell von der Weltpresse aufgenommen und so die potentiellen Investoren und wichtige politische Entscheidungsträger gezielt beeinflusst werden.

Eine weitere Version dieser Studie wird demnächst vorgelegt; es wird darin stärker auf die methodischen Grundlagen in den Afrikaberichten der internationalen Consultingunternehmen eingegangen werden. Dieser erweiterte Beitrag wird dann in den  IWIM Blue Series Discussion Papers veröffentlicht werden (vgl. IWIM Blue Series Discussion Papers).

 

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Jubiläum des "Jahrbuchs Afrikanische Entwicklungsperspektiven": Pressemitteilung der Universität Bremen

Vor 25 Jahren erschien der erste Band des "African Development Perspectives Yearbook" mit dem Titel "Human Dimensions of Adjustment". Die Forschungsgruppe Afrikanische Entwicklungsperspektiven Bremen feiert ihr Jubiläum und arbeitet intensiv an den Projekten für die kommenden Jahre. Das "Jahrbuch Afrikanische Entwicklungsperspektiven" erscheint seit 1989 als englischsprachige Publikation ("African Development  Perspectives Yearbook"). In diesen 25 Jahren ist das Jahrbuch zu einer international anerkannten Quelle für Information und Analyse zu Afrikas Entwicklungsperspektiven geworden. Beiträge in den Jahrbüchern finden immer wieder die Aufmerksamkeit von Experten in internationalen Organisationen wie auch in nationalen Entwicklungsinstitutionen. Im Jubiläumsjahr 2014 sind sogar zwei Bände des Jahrbuchs erschienen. Beide Bände haben das Thema "Makroökonomische Politikgestaltung in Afrika". Im ersten Band geht auf die allgemeinen Grundlagen der makroökonomischen Politikgestaltung in Afrika und auf die makroökonomische Politikgestaltung in den Ländern des "Arabischen Frühlings" in Nordafrika ein. Im zweiten Band werden vergleichende Länderstudien für einige Sub-Sahara-Länder Afrikas und Regionalstudien präsentiert. Im Rahmen dieser beiden Bände wird ein neuer makroökonomischer Strategieansatz für Afrika entwickelt, der auf fünf Säulen beruht.

Die neue makroökonomische Strategie für Afrika, die von den Experten in ihren Beiträgen vorgeschlagen wird, fordert erstens eine stärkere Nutzung der Spielräume von Geld-, Wechselkurs- und Fiskalpolitik für die Beschäftigungsschaffung. Zweitens soll die makroökonomische Politik die Bedingungen für inklusives und nachhaltiges Wachstum verbessern. Drittens gilt es, die länderspezifischen Faktoren der Verwundbarkeit bei Störungen im Wirtschaftskreislauf zu erkennen und bei der Stärkung der Abwehrkräfte durch makroökonomische Politikreformen und Strukturreformen zu berücksichtigen. Viertens sind der Grad der ökonomischen Globalisierung und der Stand der ökonomischen Governance von Bedeutung für die Wahl der makroökonomischen Ziele und Instrumente. Fünftens sind die zentralen makroökonomischen Institutionen (insbesondere Finanzministerium, Zentralbank, Planungsministerium) stärker als bisher zu vernetzen. In den Länderstudien zeigt sich, dass auf der Grundlage dieser Strategieelemente soziales und nachhaltiges Wachstum in Afrika gefördert werden kann.

Der erste Band des Jahrbuchs, der 1989 erschienen ist, hatte das Thema "Menschliche Dimensionen der Anpassung" ("Human Dimensions of Adjustment"). Das Thema ist bis heute relevant, da es immer wieder darum geht, wie ökonomische Stabilisierungspolitiken sozial verträglich abgefedert werden können. Seit dem ersten Band sind Struktur und Philosophie der Jahrbuchausgaben behutsam weiterentwickelt worden. Die Grundideen, die das Projekt tragen, sind aber beibehalten worden. Dies betrifft die Themenwahl, die inhaltliche Struktur, die Präsentation der Inhalte, die Lesbarkeit, aber auch die wirtschaftspolitische Relevanz der Bände. Die Bände sollen Akteure in Politik, Wirtschaft und Entwicklungszusammenarbeit zu Politikreformen in Afrika anregen. Alle Beiträge gehen daher auf den Handlungsbedarf in der Politik der afrikanischen Länder ein. In diesen 25 Jahren wurden daher viele zentrale Themen afrikanischer Entwicklung fokussiert, die im Mittelpunkt der Reformdiskussionen standen.

Jeder Band hat daher ein Schwerpunktthema, das auf aktuelle Fragen der afrikanischen Wirtschaftsentwicklung bezogen ist. Die Probleme, Möglichkeiten und Chancen Afrikas werden von der lokalen Ebene bis zur globalen Ebene betrachtet, und werden zudem von der Projektebene bis hin zur makroökonomischen Politikebene konkretisiert. Neben den analytischen Beiträgen finden sich Beiträge zur Politikreform und Dokumente (Deklarationen und Resolutionen) von Bedeutung für die Entwicklung des afrikanischen Kontinents. Die Bände sind nach Units (Teilen) organisiert, die von Unit-Herausgebern betreut und eingeführt werden. Dazu kommt, dass afrikanische Autoren und Herausgeber eine immer größere Rolle in der Forschungsgruppe spielen, was die Relevanz der Bände stark erhöht. In einem umfangreichen Review-Teil werden für das Schwerpunktthema relevante Bücher, Zeitschriften, Diskussionsbeiträge und Policy Documents besprochen.

Die Universität Bremen weist in einer Pressemitteilung auf die Bedeutung dieser Publikation hin (Link: http://www.uni-bremen.de/universitaet/presseservice/pressemitteilungen/einzelanzeige/news/detail/News/25-jahre-jahrbuch-afrikanische-entwicklungsperspektiven.html?cHash=1cafff88f235c88a4063fbdf44a56b3e und PDF ). Vgl. auch den Bericht in Kooperation international/Eine Initiative vom Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (Link: http://www.kooperation-international.de/detail/info/25-jahre-jahrbuch-afrikanische-entwicklungsperspektiven.html und PDF ). 

 

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Impact of Agricultural Foreign Aid on Agricultural Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Impact of Agricultural Foreign Aid on Agricultural Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa– - An AGRODEP/IFPRI Study by Professor Reuben A. Alabi, Nigeria

Professor Reuben A. Alabi, IWIM's Alexander von Humboldt Research Scholar, has published an important study on the Impact of Agricultural Foreign Aid on Agricultural Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study was facilitated by the international think tank IFPRI (working on agriculture and food security in developing countries and being located in Washington D. C.) and was published by AGRODEP (African Growth & Development Policy modelling consortium). The study investigates the impact of foreign agricultural aid on agricultural GDP and on productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Using secondary data regarding foreign agricultural aid, agricultural GDP and productivity indicators from 47 SSA countries, spanning the period 2002-2010 and employing a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) framework, the study reveals that foreign agricultural aid has a positive and significant impact on agricultural GDP and on agricultural productivity. There is also an impact of disasters and conflicts in Africa on aid receipts, a finding which implies that foreign agricultural aid responds to disasters and conflicts in the SSA region. The paper is downloadable (online access at http://www.agrodep.org/sites/default/files/AGRODEPWP0006.pdf ; see also the PDF of the study).

Professor Alabi is also preparing a paper on foreign aid to Africa's agriculture for IWIM's Blue Series Discussion Papers (Link to http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/publikationen/pub-blue.htm ). Various of his former studies produced at IWIM in Bremen are available in the Blue Series Discussion Papers. Professor Alabi was recently invited to attend the high-level event German – African Cooperation in Education and Research/Africa Days of the BMBF (Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung/Federal Ministry of Education and Research) which took place in Berlin in March 2014 (see the Programme of the event as a PDF). Economics Professor Karl Wohlmuth and Agricultural Economics Professor Reuben A. Alabi prepare a research and development project on Solid Waste Management in Nigeria for environmental protection and production uses, with lessons derived from Germany's policies in this regard. Nigeria can learn a lot from the solid waste recycling policies in Germany and from the innovative recycling firms' activities in Germany.

 

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Twenty Five Years have gone since Volume One of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook was published in 1989: A Development Project with International Impacts
The Start of the Project: The African Development Perspectives Yearbook as an International Development Project

When in 1989 the first volume of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook appeared, nobody in the Research Group on African Development Perspectives Bremen would have anticipated that the Yearbook is still on the market 25 years later, and that the Yearbook would gain international acceptance and recognition – as a source of information on African development perspectives, as a collection of analytical articles, of documentation, and of reviews and book notes. Over the years the Research Group on African Development Perspectives Bremen became a network of researchers, cooperation partners, and development institutions, with increasing participation from Africa. Now, many international and regional organizations, donor agencies, governmental offices, universities, African studies centers, media, and many experts working on and in Africa look carefully at the new issues of the Yearbook. The African Development Perspectives Yearbook considers themes from the local space to the global space, and from the project level to the national policy level; also regional integration and global integration issues are discussed (see about the Research Group and the Yearbook volumes from 1989 to 2014: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/africa/africanyearbook.htm and the Wikipedia International entry about the importance of the Yearbook:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_Development_Perspectives_Yearbook ).

 


African Development Perspectives Yearbook for 1989              

                   


African Development Perspectives Yearbook for 2014
 

 


The First Volume for the Year 1989: "Human Dimensions of Adjustment" as a theme of great Developmental Importance for Africa till now

The first volume for 1989 had the title "Human Dimensions Of Adjustment". At that time the major direction of discussions was how Africa could respond to the demands for effective economic stabilization. Mainstream economics had their recipes and proposed cures, but many critical observers of such strict economic stabilization policies and packages were skeptical. They emphasized a stabilization approach with social adjustment components associated to the economic stabilization package. The Research Group on African Development Perspectives joined the critical and skeptical voices. African critical and skeptical voices on the proposed mainstream stabilization packages were taken very serious by the members of the Research Group. In Volume One of the Yearbook the Khartoum Declaration Towards A Human-Focused Approach To Socio-Economic Recovery And Development In Africa was carefully analyzed and reprinted in full; it was considered as an expression of African voices. Experts from international organizations like UNICEF and ILO who were as well critical and skeptical towards mainstream adjustment packages for Africa as proposed from IMF and World Bank were invited to contribute to Volume One to present their alternative adjustment policies, but also other views on African Alternative Adjustment were presented.

 

The Structure of the Yearbook and the Philosophy Behind: Comprehensive Analyses towards the Identification of Successful Development Models

The structure of Volume One was more or less preserved over the years, sustained and improved. The Unit 1 (Part of the Yearbook) on the Khartoum Declaration was complemented by various supporting Units; major issues like the relevance of the UN Program for Africa, the upcoming ecological crisis in Africa and the perspectives of Africa's relations with the European Community, were discussed in Volume One. A further Unit was on Successful African Development Models; Botswana was already at that time considered as a successful development model but also Zimbabwe. Another Unit covered adjustment issues of Nigeria; already at that time there were demands on Nigeria to implement long-term development strategies and to manage the huge oil revenues properly. A Unit on African Non-Governmental Organizations and Local Development highlighted the critical role of NGOs and CSOs in Africa. There was also a Unit on Reviews and Book Notes and a Unit on Profiles, News and Information. Both Units brought the Research Group into contact with publishers, editors, universities and research institutions. So it was possible to find partners having similar ideas and beliefs – the network became strengthened.

This model (or philosophy) of the issues of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook was sustained over the 25 years. The Yearbook volumes have a major theme, are focused on issues debated hotly in Africa; more and more African experts, researchers and institutions are involved and do report on their research themes, their development projects and development programs. The Yearbook is organized in a manner that allows it to bring forth the core messages across various Units which are introduced by Unit Editors. The Yearbook contains documents of importance for the Africa region; declarations and statements by regional and international organizations, by NGOs and CSOs on Africa are reproduced. The Yearbook volumes contain a Unit on Reviews and Book Notes filled with specific studies by inviting those to send their material who have written on the particular Yearbook focus. A Network of Experts and Researchers and of Institutions and Organizations was built.

 

The Current Work and the Future of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook: Consolidating the International Network on Africa

Over the years the Research Group on African Development Perspectives Bremen became involved in international research efforts. Donor agencies and international organizations became interested in the work of the Research Group. Consultancy, evaluation and research assignments to members of the Research Group followed. International research projects were awarded to the Research Group and its members The members of the Research Group who produced over these 25 years (from 1989 to 2014) the various Yearbook volumes are now working as professors at universities and colleges, as international consultants and advisers, and as experts in international, regional and national development organizations.

To celebrate the event, the year 2014 has seen the publication of two volumes with the titles – Macroeconomic Policy Formation – General Issues and Macroeconomic Policy Formation – Country Cases. The interest in these two volumes is great as a new macroeconomic strategy for Africa was elaborated and tested for various country cases. Currently there is intensive work on the volume for 2015 with the title "Africa's Progress in Regional and Global Economic Integration" as the first drafts from the contributors are reviewed, corrected and revised. Many ideas for further issues are discussed among members of the Research Group. High on the Publication Agenda are issues of New Energy and Sustainable Development Policies in Africa after Fukushima and Science, Technology and Innovation Policies for Exploiting Leapfrogging Opportunities in Africa. The Scientific Coordinator of the Research Group is still Professor Emeritus Dr. Karl Wohlmuth, Professor of Comparative Economic Systems at Bremen University; the Managing Editor is Professor Dr. Tobias Knedlik, Professor of International Economics at Fulda University, and the Review Editor is Professor Dr. Achim Gutowski, Professor of Innovation and Change Management at the University Campus in Hamburg.

 

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Country Cases of Macroeconomic Policy Formation in Africa: The African Development Perspectives Yearbook, Volume 17 just published

In Volume 17 of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook with the title Macroeconomic Policy Formation in Africa – Country Cases the Editors took up the event of the Independence of the Republic of South Sudan on July 9, 2011 to publish a special Unit on Sudan and South Sudan as part of the new Yearbook. This Unit 1 on New Economic Policies for Sudan and South Sudan - The Need for a Strategic Economic Cooperation highlights the need for new macroeconomic strategies and policies in Sudan and South Sudan. The Editors were supported by research groups from the two countries. The authors of this Unit 1 are convinced that new macroeconomic policies (supported by medium-term and long-term development strategies) and a strategic economic and political co-operation between the two countries (based on visions of sustainable growth in the border areas) are necessary for Sudan and South Sudan to reach peace and development.

Volume 17 of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook contains as well a Unit 2 on Macroeconomic Policies in West Africa. Researchers from academic institutions in Nigeria and Senegal, and from WAMA (West African Monetary Agency) and WAMI (West African Monetary Institute) have contributed to this important Unit. The established CFA-based WAEMU (West African Economic and Monetary Union) integration process is contrasted with the newly established WAMZ (West African Monetary Zone) integration process. Senegal was included as a country case for the WAEMU, while Nigeria is a case for the WAMZ.

In Unit 3 of Volume 17 a great number of book reviews and book notes are presented and so this Unit 3 is a valuable source of information on new books, journal issues, documents and research papers with a focus on macroeconomic policy formation in Africa. The Unit 3 gives access to a great number of economic reports on Africa economies. Volume 17 is complementary to Volume 16 on Macroeconomic Policy Formation in Africa – General Issues which presents a new macroeconomic strategy for Africa (see the short description of the contents of volume 17 on the back cover of the book).

The New Volume 17: Order your copy at LIT (Link: http://www.lit-verlag.de/london/ )

 

 

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Ist ein neuer Rahmen für die Welternährungspolitik erforderlich?

Dieser Frage geht Professor Karl Wohlmuth in dem Konferenzband "Europa im Spannungsfeld globaler und multilateraler Herausforderungen" nach. Der vom ehemaligen Rektor der Hochschule Bremerhaven, Prof. Dr. Heinz-Jürgen Scheibe, herausgegebene Band berichtet über die Ergebnisse des 24. Internationalen Wirtschafts- und Transportforums in Bremerhaven ("Davos an der Küste"). Neben mehreren Grußworten prominenter Europäer und Förderer werden die wichtigsten Beiträge in 5 Teilen des Buches abgehandelt (Globale und multipolare Herausforderungen; Chancen und Risiken globaler und multipolarer Entwicklungen; Strategien der Wirtschaft auf multipolare Veränderungen; Neue Wettbewerbsherausforderungen multipolarer Verkehrs- und Logistikmärkte; und Bremerhavener Botschaft).

Die Ergebnisse des 24. Internationalen Wirtschafts- und Transportforums

in Bremerhaven  ("Davos an der Küste"), DGAW 2014

Der Beitrag von Professor Karl Wohlmuth "Die Perspektiven der Welternährung bis 2050 und die Notwendigkeit einer neuen globalen Ordnungspolitik" ist im Teil 2 "Chancen und Risiken globaler und multipolarer Entwicklungen" nachzulesen. Der Bremer Wirtschaftsprofessor geht auf vier Dimensionen einer zu reformierenden Welternährungspolitik ein: erstens, auf die Bedeutung neuer Instrumente zur Messung von Ernährungssicherheit und Ernährungssicherung; zweitens, auf die Relevanz von Szenarien der Welternährung bis 2050 für die Gestaltung der Welternährungspolitik; drittens, auf die Möglichkeiten, die globale Unternehmensführung ("global corporate governance") von Agrar- und Nahrungsmittelkonzernen im Sinne einer nachhaltigen Ernährungspolitik zu beeinflussen; und viertens, auf die Notwendigkeit, einen neuen Rahmen für die globale Ernährungspolitik ("global food security governance") mit dem Ziel einer angemessenen Produktion relevanter internationaler öffentlicher Güter zu schaffen.

 

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Fiskalische Dezentralisierung im Sudan am Beispiel des Bundesstaates Al Gadarif: Forschungsstipendiat aus dem Sudan in Bremen

In einem Forschungsvorhaben zur "Fiskalischen Dezentralisierung im Sudan am Beispiel des Bundesstaates Al Gadarif" wird in den kommenden Monaten (Juni bis September 2014) von einem Gastwissenschaftler aus dem Sudan, Sharif Ismail M. Bongo von der University of Gadarif, untersucht werden, welche Möglichkeiten es gibt, die vertikalen und horizontalen fiskalischen Ungleichgewichte im föderalen System des Sudan zu reduzieren. Sowohl die vertikalen Ungleichgewichte in der Finanzausstattung (zwischen der föderalen Regierung in Khartum, dem Staat Al Gadarif und den lokalen Verwaltungseinheiten des Staates) als auch die horizontalen Ungleichgewichte in der Finanzausstattung (zwischen den siebzehn Bundesstaaten des Sudan und zwischen den zwölf Provinzen des Staates Al Gadarif) werden in diesem Forschungsvorhaben untersucht. Diese Ungleichgewichte sind in höchstem Masse entwicklungshemmend und führen zu Konflikten zwischen den Bevölkerungsgruppen und zwischen den Teilstaaten und Verwaltungseinheiten.  

Der Aufenthalt des Gastwissenschaftlers an der Universität Bremen wird vom DAAD finanziert; die Betreuung und Beratung hat Professor Dr. Karl Wohlmuth übernommen, der seit den 80er Jahren Stipendiaten aus dem Sudan berät. Im Rahmen des viermonatigen Forschungsaufenthaltes werden von Herrn Sharif auch Vorträge und Seminare zu dem Thema abgehalten. Ein Bericht für die Sudan-Studienreihe SERG Discussion Papers Nummer 42 (Link: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/publikationen/pub-sudan.htm ) ist zum Thema "Fiscal Decentralization in Gadarif State: Did it Realize the Promise?" in Vorbereitung.

Herr Sharif hat kürzlich bei der 4th Annual Conference on "Structural Reform, Transformation, and Sustainable Development in Post-Secession Sudan: Economic, Political, and Social Perspectives" zum Thema "Restructuring Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations to Enhance Growth and Development in Post-Secession Sudan" vorgetragen. Auch bei der vorhergehenden 3. Konferenz hat Herr Sharif einen Vortrag gehalten. Diese Konferenzen werden organisiert von der Faculty of Economic and Social Studies, University of Khartoum, dem Sudan Ministry of Finance and National Economy und der World Bank. Die Konferenz (April 21 - 22, 2014, Conference Venue: Shariqa Hall, University of Khartoum) wird jeweils auch mit einem Ergebnisbericht abgeschlossen, der für die Politikreform im Sudan wichtig ist (vgl. zur Konferenz Programme and Call for Papers in englischer und arabischer Sprache, mit den Links http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/Siakeu/Conference%20Theme%202014_Eng.pdf und http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/Siakeu/Conference%20Theme%202014_Ara.pdf ). Der Ergebnisbericht der 3rd Annual Conference mit den Empfehlungen für die Politik liegt in englischer und arabischer Sprache vor (Link: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/Siakeu/FESS_Annual%20Conference%20Booklet%202013.pdf).

Im Rahmen der Sudan-/Südsudan-Forschung in Bremen stehen Themen der Implementierung nachhaltiger Wirtschaftsreformen im Vordergrund (vgl. den Kurzbericht von Professor Wohlmuth mit dem Link: http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/Siakeu/Nachhaltige_Wirtschaftsreformen_im_Sudan.pdf und die aktuelle Studie für die SERG-Reihe mit dem Link http://www.iwim.uni-bremen.de/Siakeu/Wohlmuth-SERG-41.pdf ).

 

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Which Future for Sudan and South Sudan? - The forthcoming African Development Perspectives Yearbook Volume 17 has three chapters on Sudan and South Sudan

In Volume 17 of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook with the title Macroeconomic Policy Formation in Africa – Country Cases the Editors took up the event of the Independence of the Republic of South Sudan on July 9, 2011 and the recent developments which have occurred since in Sudan and in South Sudan and between these two countries to publish a special Unit as part of the Yearbook. This Unit 1 on New Economic Policies for Sudan and South Sudan - The Need for a Strategic Economic Cooperation has three chapters and highlights the need for new macroeconomic strategies and policies in Sudan and South Sudan embedded in a new political environment; there is also a focus on the many political and economic interdependencies between these two countries, especially in the border areas between Sudan and South Sudan.  

The Editors were enthusiastically supported in this endeavor by research groups from the two countries. The authors of this Unit 1 are convinced that new macroeconomic policies (supported by medium-term and long-term development strategies) and a strategic economic and political co-operation between the two countries (based on visions of sustainable growth in the border areas) are necessary. So far, the political processes and the attitudes of the elites in these two countries show that the lessons from the many decades of conflict between and within these two countries were not learned. The civil war inside the South Sudan since December 2013 and the continuing conflicts in major regions of Sudan make millions of people in both countries suffering. While the data from the most recent National Baseline Household Survey of 2009 revealed high levels of poverty in both countries (see Graph 1 and Graph 2), it can be expected that income poverty and other dimensions of poverty in both countries have further worsened in the last years. 

 

Graph 1: Poverty in the States of South Sudan (in % of the Population of these States)

Source: World Bank - Analysis of the Data of the National Baseline Household Survey/NBHS of 2009 by World Bank

 

 

 

Graph 2: Poverty in the States of Sudan (in % of the Population of these States)

Source: World Bank - Analysis of the Data of the National Baseline Household Survey/NBHS of 2009 by World Bank

 

Volume 17 of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook contains as well a Unit 2 on Macroeconomic Policies in West Africa. Researchers from academic institutions in Nigeria and Senegal, and from WAMA (West African Monetary Agency) and WAMI (West African Monetary Institute) have contributed to this important Unit with four chapters. In order to compare and to contrast the established CFA-based WAEMU (West African Economic and Monetary Union) integration process with the newly established WAMZ (West African Monetary Zone) integration process, Senegal was included as a country case for the CFA Zone. In Unit 3 of Volume 17 a great number of book reviews and book notes is presented and so this Unit 3 is a valuable source of information on new books, journal issues, documents and research papers with a focus on macroeconomic policy formation in Africa. Volume 17 is complementary to Volume 16 on Macroeconomic Policy Formation in Africa – General Issues which was published already in 2013.

Because of the great number of high-quality submissions of papers for Volume 18 on Africa’s Progress in Regional and Global Economic Integration the International Call for Papers for this volume is closed now (but submissions of papers on successfully and competitively exporting African companies and on global and regional value chains led by African firms are still accepted).

 

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New Business Opportunities in Times of Radical Change in Africa - How to deal with Shortages of Qualified Staff?

Every day new lists of "African Lions", "African Tigers", and "African Growth Champions" run through the international press and give the impression of a booming continent. The meaning is that these countries have exorbitant growth rates, huge growth potentials, large investment opportunities, and rich labour and human resources as assets for future development. However, these growth opportunities can only be used when qualified staff is available so that human resources development is key for African firms moving up the "globalization ladder" and for German firms being active in Africa. Because of the "mismatch" in African tertiary education systems (enrolments and graduations do not correspond to the needs of the major employment sectors) new approaches are needed to fill the gaps in human resources at country and firm levels. So, newly designed and innovative models of qualifying and recruiting staff are needed.

Based on a critical assessment of the views of international consulting companies on African business opportunities Professor Karl Wohlmuth gave a presentation at a meeting of Afrika-Verein der deutschen Wirtschaft e. V. in association with the Jacobs University (Link: Programme). Economics Professor Karl Wohlmuth emphasized in his presentation four issues (Link: Presentation):

First, New Business Areas and New Consumer Classes in Africa – The Development Model determines the Structure and Demand of Qualified Staff

Second, Dynamic Development of African Enterprises and Entrepreneurship – The Stage of Globalisation determines the Structure and Demand of Qualified Staff

Third, Diverging Demographic Developments in Africa – The Objectives of Employment Generation and Entrepreneurship Development will determine the Structure and Demand of Qualified Staff

Fourth, Innovative Models of Qualifying and Recruiting Staff in and for Africa

It was shown that only 13 countries in Africa have some characteristics of "inclusive growth", as revealed by looking at ten important human development, competitiveness, governance, technology and economic performance indexes. Only countries with characteristics of "inclusive growth" can anticipate a broad development of formalized small and medium sized companies, thereby solving employment and social cohesion problems and building a pool for entrepreneurs and qualified staff for the further growth of firms and businesses in size and in number. It was as well shown that there is a very divergent landscape of companies in Africa. While some few firms are "African Challengers" moving quickly up the "globalization ladder", the basic conditions for the growth of formalized small and medium sized companies are missing in many African countries. Also, the "demographic dividend" can only be captured in African countries where the tertiary education systems are drastically reformed, where the "demographic transition" takes place and allows for saving, consumption and wealth generation, and where stable employment is created in key employment sectors so as to absorb the growing labour force. These three conditions are present only in few African countries. Therefore, innovative models for qualifying and recruiting staff are needed by German firms so as to benefit from the emerging business opportunities in Africa. These firms can overcome staff shortages by cooperating with African firms and entrepreneurship networks, with African universities and research institutions, and with African initiators and executors of development projects.

These issues are discussed in greater detail by Professor Karl Wohlmuth in an essay on "African Lions, African Tigers, and Emerging African Middle Classes – How the International Consulting Business looks at Africa". This essay will be published in IWIM's Blue Series Discussion Papers (Link: IWIM Blue Series Discussion Papers).

 

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A Comprehensive Transformation Process has to start NOW in Ukraine - How to Speed Up Structural Transformation by Deep Societal and Economic Reforms?

A Comprehensive Transformation Process has to start NOW in Ukraine – How to Speed Up Structural Transformation by Deep Societal and Economic Reforms?

Are the current problems in Ukraine due to ethnic and political tensions, or due to delays in political and economic reforms, or are the causes of the problems much deeper rooted? In a new study on the Axiological Foundations In The Management Of Socio-Economic Development Of Ukraine two researchers from Ukraine - Dr Vitaliy Krupin, Senior Researcher, Doctor of Economics, and Yuriy Zlydnyk, Ph.D. Candidate, both from the Institute of Regional Researches of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Lviv, Ukraine – present their views on the root causes of the problems and on steps towards inclusive, effective and comprehensive structural transformation processes in Ukraine.

After reviewing the socioeconomic characteristics and trends of the Ukraine, the authors highlight the problems of socio-economic development in the context of axiological principles, emphasizing spiritual values and ethical foundations in the Ukrainian society. Ethical norms and value systems have to be studied in order to understand the root problems in the Ukraine of our days. Such problems, as manifested by large-scale corruption, chaotic development processes, unorganized state actions and other failures and deviations in society, can only be overcome – according to the authors - by reforms based on axiological principles. Individual conduct and responsibility of the individual for his/her actions have therefore to be investigated in the context of the ongoing transformation and reform processes in Ukraine.

The axiological foundations for managing socio-economic development processes in the Ukraine were so far not considered as important topics in the researches on the transformation process in Ukraine. The two authors emphasize this aspect as crucial for effective further steps towards inclusive transformation processes. Analyzing the socio-economic indicators since the independence of Ukraine and the results of various corruption indices and barometers for Ukraine the extent of the societal and economic problems becomes obvious. The example of small business activity in Ukraine is presented as a case in point. The authors write that declaratively, small businesses are under minimal state control, but in reality, there are almost 40 different state authorities with rights to check and to suspend any activity of a business, inviting corrupt practices and so leading to widespread informal activities. But, as spiritual values of the people are at the root of these socio economic development problems, all reform policies to initiate a business-friendly environment and to fight corruption and other failures in the development process have to be guided by measures to overcome the lack of formed spiritual values. Informational measures and educational programs are recommended along with deep societal and economic reforms.

Professor Karl Wohlmuth has advised and supported the Research Group from the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine in Lviv during the final phase of researches. The cooperation between Bremen and Lviv will be continued. The paper will be published in Issue 2, 2014 of “Berichte”, the journal of IWIM’s partner institute in Berlin (Forschungsinstitut der IWVWW e. V.).

 

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